Spot the Difference: 2016 Mets V. the 2006 Mets, Pitching Edition.
Hello! I’m The Foiler, and I’m here to talk about the only thing of any importance: The New York Metropolitans!
As you probably gathered from the title, today we’ll be taking a look at the pitching rotations of the 2016 Mets compared the 2006 team. The reason I chose these particular seasons is not that 10 years is a nice round number, but because the expectations around the baseball world are so similar.
The 2015 Mets may have made it to the World Series, but 2016 was widely expected to be the year the Mets were ‘officially’ contending. On the other hand, the 2005 Mets were not a great team or even much of a surprise, while the 2006 roster was freshly loaded up with big signings and two young guys you may have seen once or twice named David Wright and Jose Reyes. That team was considered a postseason lock, and they infamously made it to the NLCS (enough said about that). A look at the names on those rosters, however, shows us two drastically different squads… well, except for David Wright. Since the starting pitching is the strength of the Mets today and throughout their history, that is where we begin.
2016 Version:
The 2016 Mets have four starters who could be expected, when penciled in on Opening Day, to be in the Cy Young conversation, with Matt Harvey, Noah Syndergaard, Steven Matz, and Jacob deGrom, and one incredibly amusing former winner in 43-year old wunderkind Bartolo Colon. While big names Harvey and deGrom have struggled in the early season, both hurlers appear to be returning to form, and aside from Mr. Harvey’s 4.95 ERA, and Syndergaard, Matz, and deGrom are 3rd, 11th, and 12th, respectively, on the ERA boards as of this writing, with Colon coming in at a respectable 22nd (10 spots higher than Max Scherzer, I might add). While clearly not overflowing with talent, Logan Verrett and Rafael Montero are the go-to guys for spot starts, and another potential frontline starter, Zack Wheeler, is on the mend from Tommy John surgery and expected to return sometime in mid-to-late July. It’s an enviable staff from the outside, with both youth and talent on its side, and one fans and ownership should be pretty pleased with.
The 2006 Mets had a much different staff, with not even one rotation anchor under 30. Possibly most shocking from where we sit in 2016 is that the best ERA among starters who made it into at least 20 games is 3.82, which is only so-so in today’s game, where pitching and defense are king. 2006 was during a very high-offense year, where an ERA under 4.00 was a luxury. For some context, the 2006 NL Cy Young Award was won by Brandon Webb, who had a 3.10 ERA and 178 strikeouts in 235 innings with a 1.132 WHIP… all very good, but that wouldn’t look like much compared to Clayton Kershaw, would it? Get this – Webb’s ERA+ was 152, or 52% better than average. Oh, and that 3.82 high-mark on the Mets? None other than Tom Glavine, a man who embodied a rotation of fading stars who made their names elsewhere.
Glavine was, as alluded, the best all-around performer on the team (remember, this is 2006, not 2007), going 15-7 with a 3.82 ERA over 180 innings in 32 games. Personal anecdote: in the reviled 2006 NLCS Game 7, I remember watching Cliff Floyd come up to pinch-hit and shouting at Willie Randolph for not PH-ing Glavine instead and going for the bunt, which I would never say now. Glavine, who was a Brave at heart and went back to Atlanta happily after his contract was up, was the only starter to give the Mets quality and quantity, as his 180IP led the team.
Two more former phenoms made up the 3 and 4 spots in the rotation for much of the season: a visibly diminished (and rooster-loving) Pedro Martinez, and questionably-aged Cuban defectee Orlando Hernandez, known affectionately as El Duque. I was able to attend several of Duque’s starts and can attest that he once threw an Eephus pitch (for a called strike!) at 56mph, and another for a swinging strike that was too slow or possibly just arcing too high for the Shea Stadium radar gun to catch it. Fun as he was, much like Bartolo Colon today, he was no major asset, going 9-7 with a 4.09 ERA in 116.2 innings, making 20 starts for the Mets. Hernandez began the season with Arizona, where he was 2-4 in 45 innings. One of the greatest right-handers of all-time, Pedro Martinez, fared even worse, tossing 132.2IP in 23 games to a 9-8 record and 4.48 ERA. The best thing Pedro ever did for the Mets was sign here before we picked up any other big Free Agents, helping to make Flushing a more attractive potential home for other stars.
Amazingly, the real #2 that year was ‘The Human Rain Delay’ Steve Trachsel, a guy who spent upwards of 12 minutes cursing and muttering to himself after each pitch, making of his starts feel like cricket matches. While he was anything but exciting, the former Oriole went 15-8 over 164.2IP with a 4.97 ERA in 30 games. He, of course, will be remembered as the guy who gave up 5 runs in 2 innings in Game 3 of the NLCS, pitching under both the pressure of a Championship Series and in the midst of a rough divorce.
Of the 4 main starters on the 2006 team, none of them are in the game anymore. In fact, only one SP on the team is even on a Major League roster as of today, and that’s Oliver Perez, who has long since become a lefty-specialist reliever.
The 2016 season is early and our staff will see some flux, but if all goes according to plan the 2016 Mets rotation should be even better by the end of the year than it is now, with 5 healthy young arms. The 2006 season makes a stark contrast, with 6 other pitchers making a number of starts. The Mets got precious few innings from the 3 big names, and struggled to fill out lineup cards due to inconsistency and injuries all over.
You may have noticed that Glavine, Trachsel, Pedro, and El Duque combined appeared in only 114 games, which is how you end up with over 100IP from a starter with a 6.55 ERA and then end up that same guy starting Game 7 in a playoff series. For those who were following the team closely at the time, this was the sort of thing Aaron Heilman would cite when complaining about wanting to be a starter. Take a look at the list of luminaries who stepped onto the mound in that fateful year:
John Maine, 6-6, 3.60 ERA, 90IP. Maine stuck around for a few years, won 15 games once, and was always lying about his health, once leaving a game after a single pitch. John Maine led the league in Pitches Fouled Off once and caught on with the Orioles for a stint after wearing out his welcome in Queens.
Alay Soler, 2-3, 6.00 ERA, 45IP. This young Cuban could be described as Ruthian in all the worst ways. He never appeared in a Major League game after his cup of coffee in 2006, but he did throw a 2-hit shutout against a decent Arizona team.
Oliver Perez, 3-13, 6.55 ERA, 112.2IP. Despite his terrible year, Perez had a few decent if frustrating ones before being shut down with a bogus injury and drifting around until reestablishing himself as a decent lefty out of the bullpen. Featured in one of Shea’s ‘Professor Reyes Teaches Spanish’ vignettes.
Victor Zambrano, 1-2, 6.75 ERA, 21.1IP. Known affectionately as “The Wrong Zambrano”
Mike Pelfrey, 2-1, 5.48 ERA, 21.1IP. Big Pelf was a mediocre part of the Mets for years outside of a 2-month stretch of completely uncharacteristic dominance that he completely lost after hitting the DL.
Jose Lima, 0-4, 9.87 ERA, 17.1IP. A goofy guy who referred to his appearances as Lima Time, his 4 starts and 17.1IP in 2006 were the last of his Major League career, though he went on to play a few season of international ball before his death due to cardiac issues in 2010.
In 2006, the Mets went 97-65 with arguably the best lineup they’ve ever had, but ultimately came into the postseason pretty banged up and still made it a fight. Will the pitching-rich 2016 Mets win that many games? We don’t know (though my money is on ‘probably not’). Much like in 2006, the Mets were considered frontrunners for the postseason. This season, right here and now, represents the highest expectations have been for the club in ten years. Looking back and remembering what it all felt like, remembering how good the fanbase felt about their beloved Amazins, it’s surprising to see just how different these teams were and how the blueprint (blue-and-orangeprint, if you prefer) for a winning team has evolved in a fairly short time – you might even look at it as the Minaya model vs. the Alderson model. While the Mets of 2006 were put together on names and bats, the 2016 team is pitching-first and proud of it – not that there’s a major power shortage this year. Win or lose, this is as good as we’ve been in a decade.
Let’s Go Mets!
2016 stats courtesy of MLB.com
2006 stats courtesy of the wonderful baseball-reference.com